I haven’t updated this blog in a while and I figured I would give it another shot. There will be a few slight changes but nothing major. First off I will only analyze the markets I actively trade, the YM (e-mini dow), ES (e-mini S&P 500), NQ (e-mini Nasdaq), and CL (Crude Light). I will occasionally talk about the USD since that has a lot of news surrounding it. But for the most part I will only focus on the YM, ES, NQ, and CL. If you have any questions or would like to contact me, my e-mail is james.lengyel@gmail.com

First I want to talk about the YM. On Friday we tested the mid August lows and closed somewhat near that low which is bearish, the small wick on the candle indicates there are buyers in the area. The MACD finally rolled over and that adds to my bearish argument. Although going short right on a support level isn’t attractive in the risk/reward category I would look to go short if we broke those lows and my swing target would 12,500.

The NQ has been setting up a box play for nearly two months now and finally broke out of the support. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retracement back up to 2,000 then a selloff down to my target of 1,950.

The ES hit support made in November, but I don’t like this setup compared to the YM and NQ so I will stay away from this market for now.

Crude light has been generating a lot of news this last week since the first trade hit $100.00 a barrel. This would have been great news for the bulls had it not immediately sold off. CL finished the week with a spinning top against the $100 which is actually bearish. I don’t like the idea of shorting CL in this market but I definitely wouldn’t buy until a close above $100. The daily chart shows a possible evening star against $100, but it’s missing the gap up into the doji. Nonetheless it’s still a doji against resistance which indicates a tug-of-war between the bulls and bear; the doji was confirmed Friday with a selloff. I think we might see sideways trading for a few days or a small retracement then another push into $100.

Hope you all have a great weekend and good trading. Feel free to contact me with any questions.